MP's are scheduled to vote on a proposal for a bill implementing the fiscal rule on Friday evening, which will require the balancing of the budget’s incomes and expenses without new debts or at a surplus. That would lead to the establishment of a reformed institutional framework for planning and monitoring the implementation of fiscal policies.
At an international conference held today the Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) and the office of the European Commission in Slovenia presented some good and bad practices from abroad. The former Slovenian finance ministers Janez Šušteršič and Mitja Gaspari, current finance minister Dušan Mramor, and the head of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Istvan Szekely, all exchanged views on fiscal consolidation and Slovenia's difficulties in that area.
At the beginning of the conference the head of IMAD, Boštjan Vasle, said his institute noticed several changes last year in the field of fiscal consolidation, both regarding content and speed. "With this government we see a change in mindset of how to achieve fiscal consolidation," said Vasle. He warned that speed is not as important as is the efficiency of the measures. The quick consolidation of the country's public finances can also have negative effects, as it may also obstruct the implementation of long-term reforms.
Vasle critically highlighted that the government's consolidation measures don't address the issues which pose the biggest threat to the country's public finances. The costs of the ageing population and public debt have increased fourfold during the crisis - from 20% to 80%. According to Vasle, Slovenia's population is ageing quicker than in the rest of the EU. By the year 2020 the number of those older than 65 years of age will reach almost 65.000.
"Every year the working population will decrease by 10.000. That means there will be 50.000 less actively working people in the year 2020," also warned Vasle. Larger transfers from the budget into the pension fund will be needed. Due to the increased public debt, accumulated because of the crisis, Slovenia also has to pay higher loan interests. The yearly amount that had to be paid before the crisis was around 380 million euros, now the interests stand at around 1,1 billion euros.
Minister Mramor replied to Vasle that he did not agree with him. The difficulties brought by the ageing population on the country's public finance are to be solved by reforming the public education system. The plan is to shorten the period of studies and with that lower the age at which people enter the labour market, as well as by extending the working age and reforming the health care and long-term care systems.