After seeing substantial growth in 2014 (2.6 %), the Commission estimates that economic growth will slow down this year. The country’s fiscal situation is expected to improve, but public debt will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.

Compared to its February forecast, the Commission upgraded its growth projection by 0.5 percent for 2015. It downgraded its projection by 0.2 percent to 2.1 percent for 2016. These figures are well above the Eurozone average.

Public Debt to Rise to 81 % of GDP
For the third consecutive time, the country’s public deficit is projected to stand at 2.9 percent of GDP. Slovenia needs to bring its deficit below the 3 percent threshold in 2015.

Public debt, which stood at 28.6 percent on average between 2006 and 2010, is expected to rise. This year, it is projected to soar to 81.5 percent of GDP. It is forecast to increase by an additional 0.2 percent in 2016. These rates are still lower than the EU or Eurozone average.

Unemployment Continues to Drop
The unemployment rate is expected to edge lower to 9.4 percent in 2015. It is projected to drop by an additional 0.2 percent next year, which means the country is expected to perform above the Eurozone average.

Private sector wage growth is not expected to gather much pace in 2015. There will be more pressure on wage growth in 2016, especially in the public sector and in sectors covered by collective agreements.

According to the Commission, inflation will stand at 0.1 percent in 2015 and rise to 1.7 percent in 2016, which is slightly above the Eurozone average.

Public investment is projected to decline sharply in 2016, especially due to the lower absorption rate of EU funds.

Exports and public investment will continue to be the driving force behind Slovenia’s GDP growth in the coming years. Brussels expects private investment to expand, while private consumption is also projected to pick up. After a five-year slump, public consumption is expected to grow considerably.

A. S.
translated by D. V.