The Croatian daily Jutarnji list, quoting an unnamed Croatian diplomatic source, reports that Croatia has prepared several scenarios in the wake of the arbitration court ruling regarding its border with Slovenia.

According to the article in Jutarnji list, Croatia will insist that it does not plan to implement the arbitration court ruling when Prime Minister Miro Cerar visits Zagreb on September 2. The newspaper reports that Croatia will maintain that bilateral talks are the only solution for the dispute. The Croatian side even believes that this is the most realistic scenario, even though Cerar insists that the arbitration ruling must be implemented. Because Cerar and his Croatian counterpart Andrej Plenković have diametrically opposed viewpoints, Cerar’s visit to Zagreb has itself been questioned.

Even though Croatia has long-running territorial disputes with all of its neighbors, it is setting preconditions for continued talks with Slovenia, namely “a cooperative, neighborly atmosphere, where we don’t judge who is the winner and who is the loser.” Another scenario drawn up by Zagreb foresees strong diplomatic pressure on Croatia to implement the arbitration court ruling. But even if this were to happen, Croatia would not back down.

The third, least desirable scenario, foresees the outbreak of border incidents. In that case, Croatia believes that Slovenia will have to sit down at the negotiating table. Apparently, the Croatian government has now determined that the arbitration court ruling is not all that unfavorable for Croatia, particularly on land, since the court has awarded the country 17 out of 20 disputed border segments. In the wake of the June decision of the arbitration court, the number of incidents in Piran Bay has increased significantly. According to Slovenian police, 142 incidents have been processed, including 279 cases of Croatian vessels entering Slovenian territorial waters.

Sandra Brankovič, Radio Slovenia; Translated by J. B.