Coalition will hold until the end of October, when Brussels intends to check the implementation of anti-crisis measures, but it is rather unlikely it will survive winter, predict political analysts Igor Pribac, Matej Makarovič and Andraž Zorko for MMC.

»The tension will mount, the contour of the government measures with expected negative reaction of the public will be clearer. The Prime Minister reputation will plummet. The drama within the Positive Slovenia, the extremely respectful attitude of Alenka Bratušek towards Zoran Janković in the role of 'spiritus movens' of the party, besides the increasing frictions within coalition, will become insurmountable obstacles for coalition and will prevent it from surviving winter and living till spring,« said Igor Pribac, the lecturer in the Faculty of Arts.
He is convinced that the only recipe for this coalition would be to continue working at full pressure, to prove its enthusiasm and its ability to present unpopular measures to the public as the best possible option, even when bad. »It is a Slovenian problem - we don’t understand that the best option among a number of bad ones must be considered a good option,« believes Pribac.
Two or more candidates for President of PS?
He disagrees with the idea that Bratušek and Janković are contending for the position of President of the Positive Slovenia, as that would imply a competition. We are facing, however, an ethical problem: Alenka Bratušek opted for giving priority to Zoran Janković, the founder of the party and its spiritual father of a kind. The consequence of her decision is the unresolved status of the party president, and this situation could continue until the end of

registration or confirmation of candidates, to be concluded in the beginning of October. It means we won’t know the number of members standing as candidates for president won’t be known till then, or will the battle really be fought between the two, cautions Pribac.
A real hustle, or a PR manoeuvre
»The question remains whether the hustle is real, or just a calculated PR manoeuvre. Considering the public promises given by Zoran Janković I can’t imagine him returning as the president of the party, without causing the disintegration of the coalition and failure of the party in the next elections,« assumes Andraž Zorko,Valicon Agency.
Taking the back seat would be more favourable for Janković
Matej Makarovič, the lecturer in School of Advanced Social Studies, estimates that it is more favourable for Janković to control PS from the background than to try to force his way to the forefront once again, as it would do more damage than good. Makarovič believes Janković is capable of asserting, through PS, all of his key interests, and will abstain from running for president.
The present coalition team will not avoid the troika
Makarovič is convinced that Slovenia with its present team in the end won’t be able to avoid the actual appearance of the troika, when some extremely unpleasant measures will have to be passed. »It will be interesting to know who from the present-day players will dare to be present at that time,« he added.
The already traditional blackmailing tactics by DeSUS will end with a compromise. »The coalition will probably

survive thanks to a number of such compromises. Yet these will only help keep coalition alive, and won’t be good for the state, as they will only add to the inconsistency of this government policy,« predicts Makarovič.
Pensioners get a lot, even what they don’t wish for
Pribac states that pensioners as a rule got whatever they wanted from previous governments as well, including quite a lot of things they didn’t want at all: »They caused a domino-effect, i.e. a spiral of requests by individual social groups to be excluded from the planned austerity measures.« And such a spiral, according to Pribac, is the last thing Slovenia wants, as inflexible perseverance on requests by any group shows poor knowledge of Slovenian financial reality, and of actual possibilities for our state on financial markets.
Social Democrat demagogy
Social Democrat demagogy in ratifying all government measures, while their president Igor Lukšič at the same time persistently and loudly criticises them, claim the highest public opinion support among parties. »This is a typical phenomenon, characteristic for the last two decades, and is typical for all the parties, and not only SD. The voters who have seen through the party demagogies of all colours stopped going to the elections. This part of the voters is slowly, but reliably, becoming the most numerous ‘party’,« says Andraž Zorko, who doubts » this coalition can hold till the end of the mandate 'in a natural way'«.
Lukšič is riding two horses
Lukšič is riding two horses: he is twice the outside man: not in the government, not in the parliament … He is using his role as an unbound intellectual in the market of ideas, criticising the government and becoming the critical voice of the leftist public critical towards the government, as if his party was not an extremely important part of the coalition, points out Pribac. He believes the danger exists however, that in case of government crisis caused by someone else, e.g. Gregor Virant and Karl Erjavec, SD might be tempted to act as Pontius Pilate, wash their hands of it and say: 'The crisis is already here, so we might as well have elections’.
For Makarovič, the Lukšič policy is expected: for now he will continue this double play, as the premature elections do not suit him. »SD might quit the government just before the regular parliamentary elections, and completely distance itself from it,« predicts Makarovič.
Virant’s party = virtual party
The weakest coalition link – Gregor Virant’s Civic List – Pribac considers as »more virtual than actual party, which hasn’t grown any roots in the field, not even weak ones.
»Virant has, by participating in the socialist oriented government, without any doubt abandoned the basic liberal orientation of his party. Therefore it is not unusual that his party is losing their primary supporters. On the other hand, the leftists won’t adopt his party, as they still have enough of others to choose from. Virant will remain the president due to the strong personification of the party, yet I doubt this party will cross the electorial threshold ever again,« believes Makarovič.
The fate of the new parties
Andraž Zorko explains that the Civic List is sharing the fate of all so-called new parties which seem to be single projects, which consider their goal fulfilled by achieving seats in the Parliament, and later in the government, institutions, and supervisory boards. »None of these parties managed to survive, at least not under the same name,« Zorko foretells a sad end of Civic List.